We all need to eat.
It鈥檚 safe to say that few areas of academic research directly touch on Canadians鈥� lives quite like Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report. Food is one of the top three items in most household budgets, and rising grocery costs affect everyone.
鈥淐anadians deserve to know more about price changes in the food they consume and how those changes will impact them,鈥� says researcher Eamonn McGuinty with H漫画鈥檚 Agri-food Analytics Lab. 鈥淭he report builds on the聽momentum聽started by some of the leading thinkers and researchers in the area of聽agriculture,聽food, health and nutrition.鈥�
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Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report is prepared each year by a team of researchers from H漫画 University鈥檚 Agri-Food Analytics Lab and the University of Guelph. Now in its 10th year, the report has a track record of accurately forecasting food prices across the country. It also analyzes the complex environmental, biological, geopolitical and trade issues that influence those prices.
A 4% growth in food prices
But what does this actually mean for your grocery bill this year? The 2020 report forecasts two to four per cent growth in food prices, bringing the predicted annual cost of food for the average Canadian family to $12,667, an increase of $487 over 2019.
鈥淭his is a聽significant problem. Already one in eight聽Canadian聽households is food insecure聽and food affordability is a major issue for Canadians,鈥� says Guelph Project Lead Simon Somogyi. 鈥淲age growth is stagnant. Canadians聽aren鈥檛 making more money, so they鈥檙e taking money away from other parts of their budgets just to聽eat and that gets tougher and tougher.聽The ever-increasing use of food banks across the country shows us how many Canadians聽can鈥檛 afford to put food on聽their plates.鈥�
鈥淔ood price inflation is desirable, but when rates increase quickly, families can be left behind,鈥� adds Sylvain Charlebois, lead author and H漫画 Project Lead, and scientific Director of Dal鈥檚 Agri-Food Analytics Lab.
鈥淰egetables are a perfect example. Canada鈥檚 new Food Guide encourages Canadians to eat more vegetables, but they鈥檙e getting more expensive. Increasing the amount of vegetables and fruits we produce domestically would be a great start in solving this problem.鈥�
The report鈥檚 authors forecast that all food categories will go up in price in 2020, with meat in particular expected to go up by four to six per cent despite Canadians鈥� increasing interest in plant-based protein options. You鈥檒l likely see other notable price increases in seafood, vegetables and restaurant meals, each of which are forecast to go up by two to four per cent; fruits are forecast to increase in price by up to three and a half per cent.
Food price increases in 2020 in British Columbia, Manitoba, Quebec and Prince Edward Island are expected to exceed the national average, while price increases in Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are expected to be lower than the national average. The cost of food in Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador is likely to align with the national average.
Forecasting food
Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report has a history of coming very close to being 鈥榦n the money鈥� in terms of accurate forecasting. The 2019 forecast for annual food spending by the average Canadian family is on track to come within $23 of the actual cost. This accountability is a unique feature of Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report: each year includes a review of the previous year鈥檚 forecast.
鈥淔ew agencies will do that,鈥� says Dr. Charlebois. 鈥淲e were surprised by how accurate our 2019 forecast was, despite vegetable prices going up by 12 per cent rather than the predicted four to six per cent. Forecasting is not easy, and we have learned from our successes and failures over the last 10 years.鈥�
But how does the research team actually know how much your grocery bill is going up this year? 鈥淭he聽complexity of food聽pricing is a challenge, but the聽ability to deploy predictive聽analytics solutions and machine learning聽algorithms has聽never been better,鈥澛爏ays McGuinty. 鈥淭he number of open-source and subscription-based tools聽available is truly remarkable,聽but predicting聽macro-economic events, climate change聽impacts and consumer demand changes is still tough. Canada needs more distributed and聽democratized data sources related to agri-food and consumers. The Agri-Food Analytics Lab at聽H漫画 is working to fill that gap.鈥�
There are opportunities to mitigate costs over the longer term in spite of the challenges facing Canada鈥檚 food price landscape. In addition to research and development related to growing more fruits and vegetables domestically, Canada can fill a leadership gap by developing alternatives to single-use plastic materials, legislating plastic use and implementing tax regimes that encourage producer responsibility.
Dr. Charlebois also predicts food waste will become a much larger issue 鈥� one we can all take more control of. 鈥淔amilies will need to reduce the amount of food waste they generate and learn how to repurpose food. We all need to do a better job of rescuing food from the compost bin.鈥� 聽
McGuinty hopes this year鈥檚 report helps ordinary consumers understand a little more clearly why their grocery cart is getting more expensive to fill 鈥� and what they can do about it. 鈥淭he food systems we have in Canada are complex and constantly changing. We hope this report drives the discussion towards cost-friendly and more accessible food across the country."
H漫画 the authors of Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report 2020
This year鈥檚 research team included H漫画 University colleagues Vlado Keselj (Faculty of Computer Science), Janet Music (Agri-Food Analytics Lab), Andrea Giusto (Department of Economics), and Don Fiander (DalAnalytics). They were joined by Joon Son (IBM Canada), Hyejung (Cathy) Bae and Emon Majumder (Applied Research, Nova Scotia Community College), and Jay Harris (Schulich School of Business, York University). University of Guelph researchers included Erna Van Duren and Francis Tapon (Gordon S. Lang School of Business and Economics), Paul Uys (Ontario Agricultural College), Jess Haines (Family Relations and Applied Nutrition), and Graham Taylor and Alexander Moksyakov (School of Engineering).
For more information, please read the complete Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report 2020.